Conférence de presse : présentation de l'independent Annual Growth Survey 2016.

9h00 OFCE - 69 quai d'Orsay - 75007 Paris

Communiqué de presse

Présentation lors de la conférence de presse du 10 décembre

Xavier Timbeau, directeur principal de l'OFCE présente le 4e Rapport iAGS sur la situation économique en Europe.



The ongoing recovery of the EA economy is too slow to achieve a prompt return to full employment. Despite apparent improvement in the labour market, the crisis is still developing under the covers, with the risk of leaving long-lasting “scars”, or a “scarification” of the social fabric in the EA. Moreover, the EA is lagging behind other developed economies and regardless of a relatively better performance in terms of public debt and current account, the current low rate of private investment is preparing a future of reduced potential growth and damaged competitiveness.
So far, the Juncker Plan has not achieved the promised boost to investment. The internal rebalancing of the EA may fuel deflationary pressure if it is not dealt with through faster wage growth in surplus countries.
Failure to use fiscal space where it is available will continue to weigh down on internal demand. Monetary policy may not succeed in the future in avoiding a sharp appreciation of the Euro against our trade partners’ currencies. Such an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of the Euro would lock the EA in a prolonged period of stagnation and low inflation, if not deflation.
A window of opportunity has been opened by monetary policy since 2012. Active demand management aimed at reducing the EA current account combined with internal rebalancing of the EA is needed to avoid a worrying “new normal”. Financial fragmentation has to be limited and compensated by a reduction of sovereign spreads inside the euro area.
Active policies against growing inequalities should complement this approach. Public investment and the use of all policy levers to foster a transition toward a zero carbon economy are ways to stimulate demand and respect the golden rules of public finance stability.


With the financial support from :

S&D Group of Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in European Parliament

Progressive Economy initiative


Press-release :


AK (Chamber of Labour, Vienna):

Blog :

and more specific to the iAGS:


The proposal for a golden rule of public investment mentioned in the iAGS:

Our Position Paper on the five-president-Report :


ECLM (Economic Council of the Labour Movement):

In the press:



IMK (Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung)):




OFCE (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Economiques):
















Conférence de presse : Christophe Blot, Jérôme Creel et Xavier Timbeau présenteront l'independent Annual Growth Survey 2015.

9h00 OFCE - 69 quai d'Orsay - 75007 Paris


En 2015, les perspectives de croissance dans la zone euro sont revues à la baisse. La zone euro entre dans une zone de basse inflation, voire de déflation. L'iAGS 2015 livre une analyse détaillée des risques et propose une stratégie macroéconomique alternative pour retrouver le chemin d'une prospérité durable.

La conférence se déroulera en français.

Contacts scientifiques :

Christophe Blot

Jérôme Creel

Xavier Timbeau




Press breakfast to present the iAGS report, with S&D vice-president Maria João Rodrigues

8:30-9:30 MEP restaurant - salon, European Parliament, Brussels

More information:


Progressive Economy, an initiative launched by the S&D group, has the pleasure to invite you to the presentation of the
2015 independent Annual Growth Survey

S&D Vice President Maria Joao Rodrigues will present the iAGS, an alternative to the European Commission’s economic policy recommendations providing independent analysis and forecasts.

Xavier Timbeau from the Observatoire Français de Conjoncture Economique (OFCE) in Paris, Andrew Watt from the Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK) in Düsseldorf and Lars Andersen from the Economic Council of the Labour Movement (ECLM) in Copenhagen will be there to comment the results of the report.





iAGS 2014 reportThe euro zone has seen renewed growth, but the positive figures are insufficient to offset the real cost of the 2007 financial crisis and do not demonstrate that austerity is beginning to bear fruit. On the contrary, the persistence of mass unemployment is leading to new imbalances and new risks. External and fiscal imbalances are being reduced, but the growth trajectories of the euro zone countries are increasingly diverging, especially in terms of GDP per capita. Long-term unemployment is setting in along with its corollary, rising inequality, and the risk of poverty is increasing in many European countries. While adjustments to competitiveness are of course needed, this process is going too far. The relentless pursuit of the drive to lower the cost of labour is spurring higher unemployment and gradually leading to deflation in the weaker euro zone economies. Without a change in orientation in Europe’s macroeconomic policies, these imbalances are likely to intensify and spread throughout the euro zone.

The 2014 iAGS report, produced by researchers at the OFCE,, the ECLM and the IMK, offers an alternative strategy. First, strategy must be based on recent institutional developments. In particular, the conduct of a more expansionary monetary policy – stronger quantitative easing – would help to reduce differences in interest rates substantially. Second, today’s trajectory of deficit reduction must be relaxed, and a public investment programme needs to be launched. This is a crucial condition for stimulating both short-term and long-term growth. The public investment programme recommended by the 2014 iAGS would help to put a halt to governments’ disinvestment in their economies, which is in line with the European Commission’s goal of an ecological transition. Third, poverty and inequality must be at the heart of economic policy. Fourth, the brakes need to be put on wage deflation.

The 2014 iAGS report proposes enhanced coordination of wage policy through the introduction of standards on the minimum wage, as part of a determined effort to reduce the risk of deflation and contribute to a reasonable reduction of trade imbalances



Press conference introducing the iAGS 2014 report  at OFCE, Paris.
9 am - OFCE - 69 quai d'Orsay - 75007 Paris


OFCE : le rapport IAGS 2014



Presentation of the independent Annual Growth Survey (iAGS) report for 2014 during the first annual Progressive Economy Parliamentary Conference

2.30 pm - European Parliament - ROOM P3C050, PAUL HENRY SPAAK BUILDING - Brussels




The eurozone could face a second year of recession with negative growth of -0.3% and a new surge in unemployment next year if governments continue to pursue the current path of austerity.

This is one of the main conclusions of a new report, the independent Annual Growth Survey. The report was commissioned by the S&D Group in the European Parliament and prepared by three major economic institutes: the OFCE (Paris); the IMK (Düsseldorf) and the ECLM (Copenhagen).

The authors of the report argue that the 'moderate growth' of 0.1% for 2013 forecast by the Commission in the autumn will not be achieved. They believe that the European Commission's predictions are based on the wrong fiscal multiplier, thereby underestimating the negative impact of further austerity measures on economic growth.



Press conference introducing the first iAGS report  at OFCE, Paris.
8.30 am - OFCE - 69 quai d'Orsay - 75007 Paris



Presentation of the full report chaired by S&D Group President Hannes Swoboda with the three institutes, just before the European Commission's own recommendations are published in the Annual Growth Survey.

10am - European Parliament - Room ASP 5G2 - Brussels



Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques

ECLM / Arbejderbevægelsens Erhvervsråd

IMK, Institut fur Macroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK) in der Hans-Böckler-Stiftung