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iAGS 2014 reportThe euro zone has seen renewed growth, but the positive figures are insufficient to offset the real cost of the 2007 financial crisis and do not demonstrate that austerity is beginning to bear fruit. On the contrary, the persistence of mass unemployment is leading to new imbalances and new risks. External and fiscal imbalances are being reduced, but the growth trajectories of the euro zone countries are increasingly diverging, especially in terms of GDP per capita. Long-term unemployment is setting in along with its corollary, rising inequality, and the risk of poverty is increasing in many European countries. While adjustments to competitiveness are of course needed, this process is going too far. The relentless pursuit of the drive to lower the cost of labour is spurring higher unemployment and gradually leading to deflation in the weaker euro zone economies. Without a change in orientation in Europe’s macroeconomic policies, these imbalances are likely to intensify and spread throughout the euro zone.

The 2014 iAGS report, produced by researchers at the OFCE,, the ECLM and the IMK, offers an alternative strategy. First, strategy must be based on recent institutional developments. In particular, the conduct of a more expansionary monetary policy – stronger quantitative easing – would help to reduce differences in interest rates substantially. Second, today’s trajectory of deficit reduction must be relaxed, and a public investment programme needs to be launched. This is a crucial condition for stimulating both short-term and long-term growth. The public investment programme recommended by the 2014 iAGS would help to put a halt to governments’ disinvestment in their economies, which is in line with the European Commission’s goal of an ecological transition. Third, poverty and inequality must be at the heart of economic policy. Fourth, the brakes need to be put on wage deflation.

The 2014 iAGS report proposes enhanced coordination of wage policy through the introduction of standards on the minimum wage, as part of a determined effort to reduce the risk of deflation and contribute to a reasonable reduction of trade imbalances

 

2013-12-06

Press conference introducing the iAGS 2014 report  at OFCE, Paris.
9 am - OFCE - 69 quai d'Orsay - 75007 Paris
contact: sylvie.legolvan@ofce.sciences-po.fr

 

OFCE : le rapport IAGS 2014

 

2013-12-04

Presentation of the independent Annual Growth Survey (iAGS) report for 2014 during the first annual Progressive Economy Parliamentary Conference

2.30 pm - European Parliament - ROOM P3C050, PAUL HENRY SPAAK BUILDING - Brussels

 

 

 

 

 

 

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iAGS 2013 reportEUROZONE COULD FACE ANOTHER YEAR OF RECESSION IN 2013

The eurozone could face a second year of recession with negative growth of -0.3% and a new surge in unemployment next year if governments continue to pursue the current path of austerity.

This is one of the main conclusions of a new report, the independent Annual Growth Survey. The report was commissioned by the S&D Group in the European Parliament and prepared by three major economic institutes: the OFCE (Paris); the IMK (Düsseldorf) and the ECLM (Copenhagen).

The authors of the report argue that the 'moderate growth' of 0.1% for 2013 forecast by the Commission in the autumn will not be achieved. They believe that the European Commission's predictions are based on the wrong fiscal multiplier, thereby underestimating the negative impact of further austerity measures on economic growth.

 

2013-11-06

Press conference introducing the first iAGS report  at OFCE, Paris.
8.30 am - OFCE - 69 quai d'Orsay - 75007 Paris
contact:
press@iags-project.org

 

2013-11-04

Press conference presenting the full report chaired by S&D Group President Hannes Swoboda with the three institutes, just before the European Commission's own recommendations are published in the Annual Growth Survey.

 

independent Annual Growth Survey (iAGS) report for 2014 will be presented for the first time publicly by its authors during the first half-day conference. The 2014 iAGS will provide analysis, forecasts and policy recommendations on macroeconomic perspectives, rising inequalities in labour markets, wage developments, and proposals in the field of euro zone governance.

14h30 - European Parliament - ROOM P3C050, PAUL HENRY SPAAK BUILDING - Brussels

 

 

 

Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques

ECLM / Arbejderbevægelsens Erhvervsråd

IMK, Institut fur Macroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK) in der Hans-Böckler-Stiftung